 
The Art of Bluffing (continued) A fellow once told me, in no uncertain terms, that I am full of bull when it comes to bluffing in lowball draw. “Bluffing, per se, can be very profitable in many lowball situations,” he said. “The classic case is when you and your opponent draw one card each. The odds are about 10 to 1 (actually 27 to 20) that your opponent will not make a 9 or better: therefore, you have a bet in the blind, regardless of what you catch! Percentage wise, this bluff will pay off, and it should always be made whenever your opponent draws one or more cards.” He made a good point. But, frankly, I doubt that his bluffing attempts are all that successful, simply because I doubt that he bluffs as often as he thinks he does! What he described was a percentage bet, not an outright bluff. An example will show the difference. Both you and your opponent draw one card each. You catch a jack, which of course is a pretty sorry lowball hand. You bet. He folds. But have you really bluffed him? He could have caught a king, a queen, or a spike card. There are four kings, four queens, and 12 cards that would pair him: therefore the chances are about 20 in 47 that you have him beaten with your jack. This means that if you make the bet 47 times, there will be about 20 times that your jack will win in case there is a showdown. In these 20 cases, you have nothing to gain by betting (except perhaps to mix up your play and possibly to keep him from betting you out of the pot). So, you see that such a bet is not necessarily a bluff. If, on the other hand, you paired 8’s and bet into the opponent, you would probably be making a real bluff, since it isn’t probable that he will pair a card higher than an 8. In this case you have a good deal to gain by betting, because you will lose in a showdown situation. I recommend betting out on your good hands, and occasionally on the sorry hands. The mediocre hands, like 10-low, should be checked after the draw. If he can’t beat it, you should win anyhow in the showdown. If he makes a 7 or better, he’ll raise you out of your seat. So why bet a rough 9 or 10 into him? The first bettor has a precarious edge against a single opponent if he always makes the percentage bet whenever both players draw. Until the opposition catches on. Remember that if you always have a percentage bet in the blind, then your opponent has a percentage raise! To bluff with intentions, not of winning the pot, but of getting caught, is called “advertising.” Such a bluff is purely strategic; it is geared to lose on the hand in question, but to pay off on a series of plays in the future. During the past few years, Albert H. Morehead and others have taken the concept to task. They agree that the bluff has advertising value, but they maintain that a player should bluff to win, not to be caught. Don’t worry, they say, you’ll be caught often enough. Well, I agree that one should bluff to win; otherwise, it’s not really a bluff. Yet, the advertising concept deserves serious thought, and, in some bluffing occasions, it might well be better to be caught, depending on how much potential advertising value the hand in question holds. The success of all advertising depends on its reaching a large audience with sufficient impact. Consequently, it is best to bluff or be caught bluffing when there are eight players at the table (but not necessarily all active in the pot) than when there are only three. And it is by far best to advertise on an ordinary busted flush. If, for example, player A bluffs on a 10-high in lowball, his bluff will not cause a lot of comment at the table and will not stick long in the minds of his opponents. On the other hand, if he happened to catch four natural 10s in lowball, played them pat, and bet them to the hilt, then it would, I think, be best to be caught, simply because it would be a bluff that his opponents would long remember! To bluff too often, however, with intentions of getting caught really undermines the nature of the bluff. The very idea saps the “spirit” of poker.
There is an old poker tale about a man who obviously bluffed to win, not to advertise. Returning from the gold fields, the forty-niners were rounding Cape Horn by schooner. The game was Straight Draw, no limit. The units of betting were little bags of gold. They were playing topside, and the wind occasionally blew a card face up. Finally, they made a rule that a card so exposed during the deal or draw could be retained or replaced, at the recipient's option. While the hero was playing for a big pot, his one-card draw blew over. He grabbed for it. The wind blew it along the deck. He chased it. The card went overboard and into the choppy water. Without hesitation, he jumped in after it. When the schooner had been brought about and the hero hoisted aboard, he bet all his bags of gold. Of course no one called the huge bet; quite obviously, the five of diamonds had filled a straight flush or something. After the hero had raked in the pot and had gone to change his wet clothes, someone turned over his cards to see what sort of powerhouse he had held. To their surprise, there were four spades along with the five of diamonds! Now that is spunk and spirit.A close examination of the literature of poker, including the lore and the tall tales, would probably confirm that the bluff is indeed the spirit of the game. It is certainly the most popular aspect of poker, as Hollywood script writers, TV writers, and advertising specialists know. Still, the consistent winner, unless he is willing to jump overboard, will put more faith in a pair of wired aces than in spiritual matters. This article was excerpted from Poker Strategy by A.D. Livingston. HIGH ROLLER - Spring 2001   |